35 Tesla cars in Austin. (triple the cars of the minimum launch). Reportedly 60 cars seen driving around in test mode before launch. Can double or more by the end of the week. 112 rides in the first hour or so. $4.20 per ride in the starting phase. It is non-trivial distances. The geofenced area is about 6-7 miles wide by 2-3 miles. 100 rides per hour. likely 1000 rides in the first day (over about 10 hours). up to 6-7 mile rides and average 4-5 miles. Should have 10,000 to 20,000 rides over 9 days but with 18 hours per day. They are shutting down for 6 hours at night. Safety monitor will come out. A market should be made about when the safety monitor comes out. 700 cars with half of the rides per car and 24 hour operation would be about 200,000 rides per day.
Jo Bhakdi had an analysis of what a fast rollout for Tesla impacting financials and the share price. He had a threshold of 5% of Tesla revenues.
1000 rides per day with 35 cars is $4200 per day in revenue. This first day was a half day but it was also extra activity from the invitation only enthusiasts.
They can double the fleet to 60-70 cars by adding in existing cars with approved stickers driving in the area. This can happen by next weekend.
2000-4000 rides per day with longer operating hours from 70 cars would be $8000-16K per day. This would be for double the current service area. This would be about $250k-$500k per month in revenue. This would be the July fast case from Jo.
The city of Austin is 320 square miles. The current service area is about 15-20 square miles. This would need about 700 cars to service the main city.
The 700 cars Austin City for would be 600k to 1.2M rides per month and doubling ride length and have $1 per mile. This would be about $5-10 M per month in revenue.
The Greater Austin area is about 4300 square miles. This would need about 2000-8000 vehicles to properly service with low wait times.
Domination of Austin ridesharing would be close to sufficient to prove out the 1500-1800 inflection point case for Jo and this should happen in the August to October timeframe.
Tesla is approved for all of Texas and has California approvals. Tesla could fill up 10 cities with 10,000 cars in Q4 of 2025. This would reach about $1 billion per year runrate.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
