2024 Government Proposal for Panel on Demographic Challenges Stalls

Swift Summary:

• High-Power Demography Mission: Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a new “high-Power Demography Mission” on August 15, 2025, during his Independence Day speech to address concerns over illegal infiltration and demographic changes affecting national security.
• Previous Unfulfilled Promise: A similar committee was announced in February 2024 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman but was never constituted nor its terms detailed.
• Demographic Data Issues:

– Census last conducted in 2011; next population count expected only in 2027.- Total Fertility Rate (TFR) reported as stable at 2.0 during 2020-21, with Bihar showing the highest TFR (3.0) and Delhi/West Bengal the lowest (1.4).
– Police reports highlight increased mosques, seminaries, and high decadal population growth near border regions with Bangladesh and Nepal as factors linked to security risks.
– Assam reported a higher-than-average population growth of 31.45%, particularly within 10 km of the Bangladesh border between 2011-21.
– Uttar Pradesh records show significant Muslim populations across border villages; out of a surveyed sample of border villages: 116 have Muslim populations above 50%, while many others report minority concentrations between 30%-50%.

• Suggested Measures: Intelligence agencies propose enhancing local police infrastructure along borders, creating Village Level Defense Committees, utilizing National Cadet Corps activities for engagement in bordering areas.

Indian Opinion Analysis:

the declaration of the High-Power Demography Mission underscores growing concerns about demographic shifts potentially tied to illegal infiltration across India’s borders-a recurring theme highlighted by independent data from intelligence bureaus and police studies on neighboring states like Assam and Uttar Pradesh. The alignment between mobility patterns around sensitive regions and national security challenges reveals complex interplays that require nuanced governance strategies.

Though, gaps persist due to outdated census figures-the last conducted over a decade ago-and unresolved commitments from previous government announcements for enhanced demographic research frameworks. Policymakers may need decisions rooted in verified demographic data collection mechanisms rather than reliance solely on anecdotal or localized reports which risk oversimplifying multifactorial issues such as migration or regional fertility disparities.

While measures such as Village-level Defence Committees suggest direct citizen engagement is being considered at grassroots levels for addressing challenges posed by shifting demographics along India’s international borders-success will likely hinge upon transparency about mission objectives paired with consistent follow-through on policy groundwork promised earlier but left unfulfilled ahead of major elections.

Read More: Prime Minister Announces High-Power Demographic Mission