Europe Braces for Prolonged 40°C Heatwave in Worst-Case Scenario

Speedy Summary

• Europe may face a summer of rolling heatwaves and extreme drought under current climate conditions, according to new research.
• Simulations using “ensemble boosting” models predict temperatures up to 45°C (113°F) lasting for more than a month in some areas.
• The study finds the potential for successive heatwaves, compounded by soil dryness, leading to increased risks of wildfires, energy shortages, food insecurity, and ecosystem damage.
• These conditions could substantially exceed historical records such as the 2003 and 2018 European heatwaves in terms of duration and intensity.
• Researchers stress these scenarios are unlikely but plausible outcomes that highlight vulnerabilities to climate extremes.
• Findings aim to inform policymakers on disaster preparedness for compound events like record-breaking heat occurring consecutively.

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