ITC Q1 Results: Up to 4% PAT Growth Expected, Cigarette Volume Boosts Revenue

Speedy Summary

• ITC Q1 Earnings Date: ITC is set to announce its Q1FY26 earnings on Friday, with muted performance expected due to margin pressures.
• PAT Growth: Estimates vary from Rs 4,918 crore (flat growth, Kotak) to rs 5,220 crore (up 2.5% YoY, Motilal Oswal).
• Revenue Forecasts: Projected between Rs 17,474 crore (Kotak) and Rs 19,400 crore (Motilal Oswal), driven by stable cigarette volumes and agri-business strength.
• EBITDA Projections: Flat or slight uptick expected-Rs 6,313 crore (YES Securities) to Rs 6,780 crore (+0.5% YOY; Motilal Oswal). Margins are under pressure across forecasts.
• Cigarette Segment: Volume growth estimated at around 4%-5.5%; EBIT margins may contract due to rising input costs like leaf tobacco inflation.
• FMCG Non-cigarette Segment: Revenue expected to rise ~4%-5%,but EBIT margins likely eroding by up to ~190 bps QoQ due to sector-specific challenges like stationery decline.
• Paperboard & Packaging Business Outlook: Modest growth (~6%) amid pricing weaknesses and low demand impacting margins (~10% forecast for EBIT margin).
• Agri Business Performance: Strong YoY revenue expectations of around +10%.

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Indian Opinion Analysis

The upcoming earnings report from ITC reflects the complex interplay of different segments in India’s FMCG landscape. While stable cigarette revenues continue as a foundation for the company’s topline performance amidst volume stability (~4%-5%), rising input costs pose challenges that may compress profits in key divisions such as FMCG non-cigarettes and paperboard packaging.

Margin pressures underline the broader macroeconomic trends affecting all consumption players-higher input costs driven partly by inflationary factors need mitigation strategies likely beyond price hikes alone if sustainability comes into play over repeated cycles.

Although Agri business appears robust this quarter at an anticipated +10% YoY growth thanks to rural support dynamics and bigger trade channels possibly feeding ITC assets there globallyasional upticks his blend reiterates reminder balance interventionientation limits