A Russian satellite will crash into Earth next week, but no one knows where

A Russian spacecraft that launched more than 50 years ago will finally crash back down to Earth, but nobody knows where it will land or even if it will fully break apart upon reentry.

Kosmos 482, a chunk of a Cold War-era spacecraft meant to land on Venus, is now expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a Russian spacecraft come crashing down to Earth, though this is notably a dangerous encounter because of why the spacecraft was built in the first place.

Kosmos 482 was originally part of the Soviet Union’s Venera program, which had its sights set on exploring Venus. The spacecraft’s descent module was designed to survive Venus’s crushing heat and pressure. So, if anything’s built to make it through Earth’s atmosphere intact, it’s this.

The probe launched in 1972, and while its twin, Venera 8, actually made it to Venus and managed to beam back data for just under an hour before being fried by the planet’s intensely hot surface, Kosmos 482 wasn’t so lucky. A rocket failure left it stuck in Earth’s orbit, where the Russian spacecraft has been quietly circling ever since, waiting to come crashing back down through our atmosphere.

Now, over five decades later, gravity is finally pulling it back in and the Russian spacecraft is set to crash down sometime later this month. The reentry was first flagged by Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracker and space situational awareness expert.

He says the object could come down anytime within a few days of May 10—but pinpointing where is nearly impossible at this stage. That uncertainty is what makes this moment both fascinating and a little unsettling. Because the probe was built to survive the worst conditions Venus could offer, there’s a real possibility that parts of it could survive reentry and make it to the ground.

Experts say the risk is low, but not zero. This isn’t the first time we’ve had a Russian spacecraft or satellite come crashing down or break apart, and it won’t be the last.