Europe’s Muslim Population Could Triple by 2050: Study Findings

Quick Summary

• As of 2025, Europe’s Muslim population is around 46 million, making up approximately 6% of the continent’s total population.
• This marks a rise from 4.9% in 2016; the growth largely stems from migration (50-60%) and higher fertility rates among Muslim women (40-50%).
• over 3 million Muslim migrants entered Europe between 2010 and 2023, with key entry points being Germany (1.5+ million), Sweden (500,000+), and the UK (400,000+).
• Countries with significant Muslim populations include:

– France: Largest at ~6-7 million (9-10%).
– Germany: ~5-6 million (~6-7%).
– UK: ~4-5 million (~6-7%).- Italy: ~2-3 million (~4-5%).
– Muslims contribute disproportionately to demographic trends:
– In France, although they constitute about 9-10% of the population, they account for approximately 30% of births.
– By current projections, France could see more Muslim births than native French births by mid-century.
– Muslim women in Europe have a higher Total Fertility rate (TFR) at about 2.6 children per woman, compared to non-Muslims at 1.6, while Europe’s overall TFR remains below replacement level (1.5 children per woman).

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Indian Opinion Analysis

The projected demographic shifts highlighted in this report underscore vital policy conversations around migration trends and cultural integration across Europe that parallel similar dynamics seen worldwide. For India-a country with its own diverse religious composition-these findings may offer important lessons on managing societal cohesion amidst rapidly shifting demographies.

India could observe parallels where varying fertility rates across communities influence long-term social structures and policy-making priorities amid migration-related debates domestically or globally. While such data can enrich academic discourses on religion-driven population dynamics globally, nuance is essential to prevent reductive conclusions or assumptions that might oversimplify larger migratory complexities faced both by India and other multi-cultural nations such as those in europe.