IMD Predicts Southwest Monsoon Withdrawal from September 15

Fast Summary

• Teh southwest monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from northwest India on September 15, according to the IMD (India Meteorological Department).
• Monsoon typically begins over Kerala by June 1, covers the nation by July 8, and retreats fully by October 15.
• This year marked an early onset of monsoon in Kerala on May 24, its earliest as May 23 in 2009.
• The entire country experienced monsoon coverage nine days earlier than usual on June 26-the fastest since 2020.
• India has received a total of 836.2 mm rainfall so far during the season (June-September), representing a 7% surplus above the normal average of 778.6 mm.
• In may, IMD had forecasted a rainfall amounting to 106% of long-period average (87 cm) for this year’s season; ‘normal’ falls between 96-104%.

Indian Opinion Analysis

The data provided indicates a strong monsoon performance in India this year with an early onset and above-average rainfall (+7% surplus). This can positively impact agriculture and water reservoirs across regions that rely heavily on rain-fed farming systems or stored water supply. However, instances like earlier-than-usual retreat (starting September rather than mid-to-late September) could necessitate robust planning for delayed impacts such as late sowing cycles.

While this year’s forecast matched prediction agility within wider-normal parameters(by IMd)– Specific basis lies how rural behavior react Flood/ moisture translate toward increased stocks …
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