Improved Monsoon Sparks Optimism for Normal July Rainfall in Kerala

Swift Summary

• Kerala’s monsoon, traditionally strongest in July, initially showed weak activity but has gained momentum during the second half of the month.
• As of July 18, Kerala received 910.7 mm rainfall against a normal average of 1,043.8 mm-a shortfall of 13%, considered within normal range by the IMD (India Meteorological Department).
• From July 10-16, monsoon rainfall was deficient by 35% in Kerala and by 28% in the preceding week.
• The IMD predicts intensified rainfall across Kerala for the remaining days of July due to strengthening westerly winds and potential low-pressure formation over the Bay of Bengal around July 24-25.
• Alerts issued: Red alert for five northern districts (Malappuram through Kasaragod), orange alert for central districts (Ernakulam, idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad), and yellow alert elsewhere on Saturday. Heavy rains expected on Sunday as well.

Indian Opinion Analysis

Kerala’s improved monsoon outlook comes as relief following an initial dry spell earlier this season-a key factor considering its heavy agricultural dependency on consistent rainfalls during southwest monsoons for paddy cultivation and hydropower generation needs. While a temporary deficiency in rainfall persisted till mid-july-affecting water resources-the anticipated heightened activity could bridge this gap effectively if predictions hold true.

The potential formation of a new low-pressure system over northern Bay Bengal will likely drive stronger wind flow along India’s western coastline enhancing regional precipitation more uniformly stabilising regional agricultural local resilience plans crucial future adaptation matching shifting reliability shifts india’s policymakers regulatory environmental support interventions moving balanced equating infrastructural safeguards