Severe Weather Threats Loom Large

Rapid Summary

• Hydrologists Meetpal kukal (University of Idaho) and Mike Hobbins (University of Colorado) coined the term “thirstwave” to describe extreme climate events affecting agriculture.
• A thirstwave occurs when evaporative demand-a measure of atmospheric moisture absorption-exceeds the 90th percentile for three consecutive days at a specific location during a particular time of year.
• Unlike heatwaves (temperature-focused) or droughts (rainfall-focused), thirstwaves account for temperature, wind speed, sun exposure, and relative humidity, making them highly relevant to crop irrigation needs and wildfire risks.
• The study analyzed U.S. data from 1981 to 2021 using the gridMET dataset. Findings reveal:

– Duration and intensity increased across 20% of U.S. cropland.
– Frequency rose among about 7% of cropland areas.

• Severe thirstwaves have become more prominent since the early 2000s in agriculturally significant regions such as the Heartland, Northern Great Plains, Prairie Gateway, Northern Rockies, and Southwest-areas historically unaccustomed to such events now face an amplified risk.
• Rolling thirstwave alerts into whether forecasts could assist farmers with crop protection and bolster preparedness for water resource management and wildfire mitigation.

Lead image credit: Bits And Splits / Shutterstock

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Indian Opinion Analysis

IndiaS agricultural sector relies heavily on monsoons alongside increasing irrigation systems dependent on groundwater sources. The concept of “thirstwaves,” which encapsulates evaporative demand beyond customary measurements like drought or heatwave,has potential implications for India’s climatic adaptability. Given that Indian farming already faces challenges from irregular rainfall patterns aggravated by climate change-including increased evaporation rates-it might potentially be prudent to explore how metrics similar to thirstwaves could apply in local contexts.

Such tools can refine agricultural response strategies by better calculating water needs under shifting atmospheric demands in regions like Punjab’s wheat belts or Maharashtra’s sugarcane zones-key contributors both nationally and globally. Moreover, integrating analogous predictive models into India’s meteorological systems may enhance preparedness against crop stress while mitigating wildfire risks increasingly observed near forested farmland edges.

As food security becomes more entwined with enduring resource management amid evolving climates globally-and most notably within nations relying significantly on agriculture-the broader adoption of refined approaches like this merits careful consideration over reliance solely upon simplistic rainfall forecasts.