Tariff panic? Buying an iPhone right now is a terrible idea

Because it’s so big and its supply chain is so dependent on Chinese factories, Apple is almost uniquely vulnerable to the effects of President Trump’s 125 percent tariff on goods coming out of that nation. For all of Tim Cook’s attempts to conciliate the new regime, this development is very bad news indeed for Apple Park, which will be braced for tough times ahead.

Thanks to those levies (here’s a detailed breakdown of how they affect Apple), pundits have speculated that the price of an iPhone could rise by as much as 43 percent, taking the entry-level model from $799 to $1,142 and a top-end iPhone 16 Pro Max to a whopping $2,300. that’s enough to induce a panic and many regular customers are either rushing or considering rushing out to buy a new iPhone before the price hikes kick in… but we think this is a terrible idea. Here’s why.

1. Buying too early is a waste (of money and electronics)

There’s a reason why most of us don’t buy a new iPhone on an annual basis: parting with upwards of $1,000 every year (before you factor in a case, a data plan, subscriptions, new apps and IAPs, and repairs if you’re unlucky), is simply too expensive. Most people upgrade their smartphone every two or three years, and plenty hold on to a handset longer than that. For all the talk of planned obsolescence, Apple builds phones that happily last three years or more without a hitch.

So let’s think about how panic-buying an iPhone now will affect that cycle. The question is this: When were you planning to upgrade? Soon? In September? Next year? If it’s just a couple of weeks, then definitely make the decision ASAP. (Though it is an odd time of year to get an iPhone, as I’ll discuss below.)

But if you were planning on waiting until the new models come out in September then a panic purchase now may save you a few bucks but you’ve just thrown away five months of perfectly good iPhone performance in order to buy a handset that will be a generation less advanced than if you had waited. It’ll last a year less before you notice performance difficulties, so this single act of panic-buying means all future upgrades will need to happen a year earlier. Given the cost of an iPhone, you’ve probably wasted just as much money as you’re likely to save.

Besides, regular smartphone upgrades aren’t just bad for your pocket. They’re terrible for the environment, too. So you’ll add some unneeded e-waste into the mix.

2. The situation could and probably will change

I’m no political commentator and absolutely do not want to get into the rights and wrongs of President Trump’s plan. But if there’s one adjective we can apply to the way things have played out so far, it’s unpredictable.

At first, Trump threatened to apply tariffs to more than 180 countries, at least one of which has no human inhabitants. Then nearly all of those countries had the tariffs paused (except China), even though the president had previously insisted that wouldn’t happen. At one stage he claimed the idea of individual exemptions was not under consideration, but later he indicated that it is.

The point I’m making is that a lot of this appears to be brinkmanship: bluffs and grand gestures intended to secure a negotiational advantage. These moves seemingly aren’t measured long-term plans with a detailed schedule. Things are liable to change with zero notice. Things may get worse, or Apple may get an exemption. Either way, it would be foolhardy to make a high-cost purchase because it seems like a good idea today.

3. The iPhone 17 isn’t far off

We’re more than halfway through the lifecycle of the iPhone 16; the iPhone 17 will be here in September. Fewer people tend to buy new iPhones between late spring and summer as it becomes increasingly worth waiting until the new models are announced, at which point you’ll get access to newer hardware with better features, and the then-new models you were considering will get a price cut.

Also, there are plenty of unknowns. We don’t know if prices will increase. We don’t know how the iPhone 17 Air will fit in the lineup. We don’t even know whether the iPhone 17 will be an especially exciting update. A panic purchase would take all the fun out of waiting.

4. There are cheaper phones you can choose from

Time for some hard truths: Apple isn’t the only smartphone maker in the world. Here at Macworld, we think the iPhone is the best option, but it would be absurd to claim that the Android market has nothing to offer, whether that’s lower prices, more adventurous features and design choices, or a more customizable operating system. Check out this cross-platform rundown of the best smartphones from our colleagues at Tech Advisor for a glimpse of what’s out there.

Many of those Android manufacturers will be facing the same issues as Apple right now, but not all. If things get really bad and the iPhone’s price balloons to insane levels (which I think is unlikely), there will certainly be alternatives out there that are more affordable without suffering too much on the quality front.

There’s also the iPhone 16e. We don’t know yet how Apple plans to update its newest “budget” handset in 2026. If tariffs affect the price of the iPhone 17 flagship lineup and impact sales, Apple could use its “e” line as a way to tempt buyers back into the fold. So again, wait.

5. You might need that money for other things

I don’t want to get all pessimistic or anything. But you might want to save your cash for essentials in the new economy. We all want a shiny new iPhone, but your current model is probably fine. So you can spend the money on something else, such as a leather jacket, a shotgun, and a car with spikes all over it.

Author: David Price, Editor, Macworld